Marco Arment has a post up about how the sales of his Instapaper app didn’t see a big spike when the Verizon iPhone was released. He was surprised:
At first, this worried me. I’ve been assuming that the Verizon iPhone launch was going to be a massive boom, and it looks like it’s been fairly average so far. But now I have a different theory: that the Verizon iPhone demand is from more casual buyers, by definition, and will therefore be spread gradually over the next 18 months.
I disagree. And I still don’t get why more people don’t get this. There are TONS of people who want to switch from AT&T to Verizon. But most people 1) can’t afford the fee to break their AT&T contract early and/or 2) know that a new iPhone is likely coming in the summer and they would rather wait until then.
If someone is taking bets, I bet that a TON of Verizon iPhones get sold in the summer.