A Few Pre-NFL Draft Thoughts

  • Cam Newton’s skyrocket to the top seems suspect. Over the last 13 years, QBs #1 overall is risk with a 40% chance of a complete bust, only one hall of famer and one other “franchise” QB1:

    • Hall of Famers: 1 (Peyton)
    • Franchise QBs: 1 (Eli)
    • Potential Franchise QBs: 2 (Bradford, Stafford2
    • Underachievers: 1 (Palmer)
    • Engimas: 1 (Vick3
    • Complete Busts: 4 (Russell, Smith, Carr, Couch)

  • I don’t want to get on the Andy Dalton bandwagon, but if he can get himself in the right situation4 I think he could be great. The Colts or Seahawks are teams that could take him and stash him away for a year or three.

  • I loved AJ Green in college. I hope he is successful in the NFL and think he will be. I don’t see him making it out of the top 5.

  • I know that teams don’t value running backs as much anymore because it seems like a decent RB is so easy to come by and it’s more about offensive line, but I think Mark Ingram will be a solid back. He is almost certainly the only RB that will go in the first round5, and this would be the first time since 1986 that only one RB has gone in the first round.

  • The first round defensive linemen depth seems insane: Marcell Dareus, Robert Quinn, Nick Fairley, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, DA’Quan Bowers, Ryan Kerrigan, Corey Liuget, Cam Heyward, Phil Taylor, Adrian Clayborn, Marvin Austin, Muhammad Wilkerson and Brooks Reed are all potential first rounders. That’s 14 if are you scoring at home. A cursory look at the last 15 years seems to indicate that 10 would be record breaking, let alone 14.

  • The Big Ten’s representation in first round would appear to be limited to linemen: Watt, Kerrigan, Liuget, Heyward, Clayborn and OT Gabe Carimi appear to be it. This isn’t as crazy as it seems because last year Michigan’s Brandon Graham was the only guy who might be able to be classified as a non-linemen who went in round 1 and was from the Big Ten.

  • The number of offensive “skill” players projected in the first round is less than 10. Newton, Green, Ingram, Julio Jones, Blaine Gabbert, Kyle Rudolph and Jake Locker are the 7 guys that are closest to being sure first rounders. Locker is a question mark, but another another QB like Ryan Mallet or Dalton could sneak in too/instead.

  • The fact that free agency hasn’t commenced yet means that this draft could be especially crazy with teams reaching for guys to fill “need” positions more frequently than usual. I am predicting that both the Bengals and Cardinals do something crazy at some point.

  • Mike Mayock was on Rich Eisen’s podcast this week talking about the potential for 8 QBs to go in the first two or three rounds (Newton, Gabbert, Locker, Mallet, Dalton, Christian Ponder, Colin Kaepernick and Ricky Stanzi. I don’t think is very far-fetched. The first five teams drafting (Panthers, Broncos, Bills, Bengals, Cardinals) could all be looking to take one6. The 49ers and Redskins could also be looking to grab one early, and the Dolphins, Jaguars, Seahawks and Colts could all look to draft a QB for the near future. I fully expect 5 QBs to go in the first 40 picks.

  1. So far, since it’s too early to decide on Bradford and Stafford []
  2. If he can stay healthy []
  3. A clear bust in Atlanta because of his arrest, but revitalized so far in Philly with the potential to be a franchise QB []
  4. Think Aaron Rodgers in 2005 []
  5. And there are rumors he could fall to round 2 []
  6. And two of them could take QBs in the top 5 of the first round []