I am sure I am not the first person to write this story, but I was curious what it would likely take for Boise St. to end up in the BCS Championship game, and so I did some homework to try and figure it out.
Boise St. is currently one of six unbeaten teams and ranks 5th in the BCS Standings. They will need some help to get to the BCS Championship and here are the teams I think could finish ahead of them.
1a. LSU
Definitely a team that controls it’s own destiny. Winning out assures it a spot. (Remaining Games: @Bama, W. Kent., @Miss, Ark, SEC Championship)
1b. Alabama
See above. These two teams play each other so it can only be one of them. In my opinion, there is virtually zero chance of a rematch of these two teams (LSU, @Miss St, GA Southern, @Auburn, SEC Championship)
2. Oklahoma St.
Because of where they are in the standings and their remaining schedule, they likely control their own destiny as well, and shouldn’t need any help if they win out. (KS State, @TTech, @Iowa St, OK)
3a. Stanford
Needs OK St. to lose I would think. I suppose if Stanford blows out remaining opponents and OK St. doesn’t there is a chance it could change. Pac 12 Championship helps. (@OR St, Oregon, Cal, ND, P12 Championship)
3b. Oregon
The dark horse that I think people are overlooking. Only loss was Week 1 vs. LSU and they have been shellacking people lately. If LSU wins out, Oregon upsets Stanford and wins Pac 12, they will move up and have a case. (@Wash, @Stanford, USC, OR St.)
4. Oklahoma
I feel less confident that the Sooners can get ahead of Boise St., but I think it’s possible. Their ranking is completely dependent on two things, how well do Texas Tech, Texas and Kansas St. close out the season, and how badly do they beat OK St. on the road in the last game. They could easily win their next three games by a combined 150 points, so they are capable of making a statement, but they also lost their starting RB. (TAMU, @Baylor, Iowa St, @OK St)
5a. Arkansas
I know I am starting to sound insane at this point but hear me out. Arkansas is 7th in the BCS and 8th in both polls. They still play South Carolina and to LSU. If Alabama somehow loses twice, Arkansas can win the SEC West. A one-loss SEC champ who beat LSU and South Carolina (possibly twice) is appealing. (S Car, Tenn, Miss St, @LSU, SEC Championship).
5b. South Carolina
Don’t give up reading yet, I am not crazy. South Carolina is ranked 9th in the BCS and 10th in both polls. They still play at Arkansas and home against Florida and Clemson. They control their own destiny in the SEC East and if Clemson has just one loss for that last game, it will be worth something. If they then defeat an undefeated LSU/Bama in the SEC Championship they could take a big leap. (@Ark, Florida, Citadel, Clemson, SEC Championship)
What Does It All Mean?
The voters are fickle, and a 1-loss SEC champ, even if it’s South Carolina or Arkansas will garner some high votes. Oklahoma is a big name school that still has an opportunity for a big road win to close out the season. Boise St.’s biggest win is likely behind them, meaning they will need some help. How much help is yet to be determined, but my personal take is that Boise St. needs a lot.
