Post 2015 NFL Draft Thoughts

My predictions proved to be quite foolish. I went 2 for 7, and both the ones I got correct were pretty easy predictions.

1. We will know well before the clock starts ticking that James Winston is indeed the first overall pick. (WRONG?)

It certainly seemed from everything I saw that this was a foregone conclusion, but it didn’t ever seem like we knew 100% for sure beforehand that this was happening. So I think this prediction was wrong.

2. Marcus Mariota will go 2nd (CORRECT)

It was the Titans. Time will tell if it was the right move. People are concerned he might not beat out Zach Mettenberger for the job, but that alone doesn’t tell us anything. The question is whether or not he is good enough to be a starter in the NFL. Having two starter-quality NFL QBs is not a bad problem to have.

3. No other QB will go in the 1st round (CORRECT)

I knew this was a softball, but there is no way that I would have predicted that no QB would go in round 2. And there is no way I would have predicted that Garrett Grayson from Colorado St. and Sean Mannion of Oregon St. would be not only the next two QBs taken, but the only two in the third round. Brett Hundley going all the way in round 5 was a surprise. The Packers might have gotten a steal there.

4. The Bears draft a defensive player (WRONG)

Every single Bears fan had to be excited to see that Leonard Williams, the guy most people thought was the best player in the draft was still sitting out there at #6. Considering the rumors that the Bears were considering trading up to #2 I hope they at least called to see what it would take to get to #6, especially since the Jets really didn’t need Williams. Despite the fact that Vic Beasley was still out there (as I predicted) the Bears went with West Virginia WR Kevin White. White was a junior college transfer and really just broke out at the end of his career. He also slowed down considerably as the season wore on. This is far from a slam dunk pick, and with all the holes on defense I am not really sure I agree with this pick.

5. Seven WRs go in the first round (WRONG)

I came close, there were six, and a third one went 5 picks into the 2nd round. Of the eight guys I said had a shot, six of them went in the first round. Dorial Green-Beckham slipped to early in the 2nd, not shocking with his off-field issues. Jalen Strong dropped all the way to the third round and could be a monster steal for the Houston Texans.

6. The death of the 1st round RB is greatly exaggerated (WRONG)

Gurley went 10th. Gordon went 15th. No one else snuck into the first round and only two guys went in the 2nd. The first of which was the surprising selection of TJ Yeldon with the 36th overall pick. Tevin Coleman and Duke Johnson not only didn’t sneak into round 2, but didn’t get picked until the third round.

7. There will be more defensive players drafted then offensive players in round one (WRONG)

Swing and a miss. Defense lost to offense 15–17. It seems like the offensive push is really on right now. Guess it will take defense a few years to catch up.

Other Observations

A few other stray observations:

  • It’s already been written about a bunch, but the draft was pretty uneventful. The top two picks were in attendance. There were almost no first round trades. No one really dropped that wasn’t expected to. No one really got picked way ahead of where they were projected. Technology has it made it so much easier for reporters to gather information that they go into making predictions with much more information than years past, and that has made mock drafts much more accurate. That takes away a bit from the drama.
  • No kickers were drafted (there was one punter). 2010 is the last time no kickers were drafted. And other than that year, there had been at least two drafted every years since 2003. But when you look at the guys drafted over the last five years most of them don’t appear to be current starters. Teams just seem to be getting smarter to the fact that kickers are more readily available and less reliable from year to year.
  • Having the draft in Chicago seemed to work pretty well. I didn’t hear about any big issues, which makes me think they will start moving it around, at least every other year.
  • As someone who has been a draft fanatic for well over a decade now, I can say that the draft is losing it’s luster for me a bit. The time between picks is excruciating, and they are always at least one pick behind, and for no real reason. With as accurate as mock drafts are, the surprise element gets lost a bit. And there is so much info about every draftee online before and after that it doesn’t really add value to see it when guys get picked.